Locked In and Left Behind: The Hidden Cost of Forward Contracting in Volatile Timber Markets
Forward contracts offer timber enterprises a familiar sense of price certainty, but that certainty carries a cost that rarely appears on the balance sheet. When spot market conditions surge—as they did dramatically in 2021 and again in 2023—operators locked into below-market forward agreements can forfeit millions in recoverable margin. This article examines the structural tension between hedging discipline and value maximization, and offers a decision framework for enterprise operators navigati